The third chapter: swords, of the Chinese government and international hedge funds
(Note: This content is only the possibility of future evolution model. Only for everyone to be a reference! Model which is always in change)
From the May 2009 date, the international conspiracy of hedge funds, the argument has been gradually coming to the fore. a growing number of economists began to remind the government to prevent future financial risk. I do not think that senior aides of a potential crisis There is no perceptible. In fact, the Chinese government with the covert international hedge funds already underway over the edge. This is the formulation of financial policy from the State Department of hesitation and repetition which can be perceptible to the obvious.
one, from the Hong Kong began to talk about
Hong Kong, the Chinese only Hong Kong's for financial aid. China has all of the cards is 2 trillion in foreign reserves (personal estimate, can be realized up to 1 trillion) plus 2 more than one hundred billion of Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves. such days the amount of foreign exchange reserves, financial markets in Hong Kong can not accommodate. The only way is to simultaneously attack the attack domestic financial markets to the Chinese government in mainland China and Hong Kong, two lines at the same time combat. to spread the defensive strength of the mainland. This the Chinese Government in the Hong Kong side will be looking over the rescue undecided . (mainland financial markets in 2009 has been different from the closed state of 98 years, in 2005 the exchange rate reform, China's exchange rate relative to the market have can only spend 200 billion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange reserves, more bound to a serious threat to the mainland financial stability). Although the Chinese side of the cards have been clear, but want to attack may have more than 400 billion U.S. dollars of funds to support the market Hong Kong's financial market, there is still much more difficult. (Hong Kong Government to the short of our financial market must be foolproof to prepare. In the absence of certain of winning before the hedge fund will not do it. And one of the prerequisites to obtain victory is sure to force the Hong Kong stocks and property markets rose to a high of horror, the short call to a panacea. At this point the concentration of hedge funds in addition to selling, the bound to mobilize all forces to incite people of Hong Kong Hong Kong stocks joint short, HK and property.
then talk about the mainland government policies to deal with: personal view that international hedge funds in Hong Kong If you choose to attack again, there is bound to take action following the win. the mainland side of Hong Kong if the rescue is likely to fall into the trap of hedge funds, the risk of a crash across the board . Now that the rescue is dead, do not save is dead, there is no reason why the mainland to Hong Kong to rescue it? the mainland must not promised to Hong Kong for financial aid. (now the situation is different from 97 years, then Hong Kong has just Return growing feeling of insecurity. .. the future of Macao also need to recover is more important when the mainland is still in the complete closure of the financial status of the rescue on the mainland side of Hong Kong will not have much damage, but also to the outside world the Chinese government expressed full support for Hong Kong and Macao return gesture ...) even if total collapse of our financial system, as long as political stability to keep the mainland, the Hong Kong economy will have a recovery day. then why all the possessions to fill the mainland into Hong Kong this hole the impact of the financial system of Hong Kong which, together with the dark hedge fund speculation in the Hong Kong financial markets. is doomed to failure anyway, have no doubt that Hong Kong, the mainland side of Hong Kong people's wealth, even if hedge funds do not also have been looted. cheap, not as outsiders cheap . Annexed RMB International (Hong Kong based) process. only controls Hong Kong's currency, is the real back all of Hong Kong. As Hong Kong's financial collapse, they just lay the future of China's financial center Shanghai, the competition among position. In addition to the Hong Kong financial market speculation in another advantage is that the mainland's participation in the formation of international hedge funds, but will give constraints. in a way you can ease the hedge fund's offensive .....( Note: This the mainland mainly refers to the continent's financial consortia and interest groups)
Although attacks together with hedge funds in Hong Kong financial markets, would cause devastating damage to our economy. but this is a . for an already dying economy, the rescue is to waste the like Hong Kong too much freedom will be a mess of which has, inevitably has a personal element of obscenity. After all, the collapse of the Hong Kong Monetary financial impact on the mainland too, but will accidentally with risk.
Again: the evolution of this model is only a possibility but yourself. being run, pushed up Hong Kong stocks is still the only way to operate model. the Government for the time being by a large number of ipo, and with Hong Kong shares short to slow the mainland capital stock skyrocketing. individuals still do high-Hang Seng Index to 30,000 points ...
Second, preventive measures in China:
this model assumes the real existence of the financial war, then certainly is that the Chinese government will find that one of the great hidden crisis. continued to derive long-term stability to the Chinese government will certainly put a lot of control policies on China's future to advance the prevention of financial risks (Running Out of Time has begun.) there is one thing for sure, hedge funds shorting model must also take into account the Chinese government may introduce preventive measures. China will be all defensive actions in the short evolution of the model within. model now is only at the initial stage, short of China also be hurried.
Corollary to this, the Chinese Government certainly possible future outbreak of the financial crisis has a clear understanding of the absolute, nor necessarily is working to resolve the financial risks .2010 future economic and financial policies in China in the main keynote from Paul changes in order to prevent growth (financial) risk. then again after the derivation should be what the Chinese government will use means to resolve future financial risk.
1, the introduction of stringent regulatory policies and outflows. in a series of cases of policy constraints under the hot money flowing into the mainland in 2010 will slow down. the international flows of Hong Kong's financial markets to form a strong support. can be expected that Hong Kong's capital market and the property market in mainland China and European capital markets following the callback for repair, the future expansion of the bubble will be even more closed to the mainland ..
will only make Hong Kong's water piled up. Hong Kong, a major battlefield of the future .. we
in the first half of 2009 the amount of 7.5 trillion days credit, the Central Government has finally found the U.S. imperialism of this moves to tighten credit in the second half is the because the bank's bad debt risk can be injected by the central bank to ease internal devaluation of the RMB has never been suspended). But if the financial war models to the fore, commercial bank credit must be strictly controlled. days the amount of credit will inevitably lead to the outbreak of severe inflation country, m1, m2 of the rapid expansion of the rapid flow of domestic hot money, speculative market in unprecedented prosperity ... it all a big increase in China's international financial consortia short chips .. the potential risks of China's financial system has been serious threat to the stability of the regime, a tight monetary policy and prevent financial risks to become the State Department's top priority. in China's stability is the overriding need to.
Therefore, since the second half after another 09 introduced a series of cases of economic and financial policies are around the of credit, issuance of central bank bills and improve the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks to raise deposit reserve, strict implementation of two suites and two suites down the interest rate policy to combat the real estate market Piandai behavior, eliminate backward production capacity, prevent the outbreak of severe inflation, not the pursuit of gdp of false prosperity ....< br> 3, must be squeezed out ahead of the housing bubble
this stage of China's financial risk is the most obvious bubble in the property market ----. If we allow the property market continue to go up, China's financial crisis will be irreversible ...
Many people believe that China's property market has been kidnapped from the government, had kidnapped the bank. moving in the destruction of government property is , the property market or it will lead to social unrest, China's financial crisis ... a lot of people will take this as far as that change as long as the ruling party, the property market will not fall. that the property market with the ruling party with the total death. ...
in my opinion, this is the reason the property market must be down ... this alone is enough conviction to the Chinese property market as the main earthquake, People think that developers will wear down the regime, they are all naive wishful thinking.
Now the Chinese Government has a clear understanding, and then let the developers crisis. how much of the contribution of the Chinese economy, as long as a threat to the stability of the regime. Death will be the only result. China's implementation of @ # @ G @ ¥ # @ party in the matter of survival absolutely clear on the issue. and never will be allows developers to form shipments. The real estate industry has been the main banker smooth out early. (to 2009 is not, China's major commercial cities of the inventory has been reduced to historically low levels.)
now that the property market maker has a smooth delivery, with adjustment bank credit and collection of property tax structure, a trial to squeeze the real estate bubble to become the government must be the decision-making. 骗贷 central bank acts on the property market can no longer continue to tolerate, strike hard property market had become Piandai prevent ; a top priority. harvest of the property market makers and buyers of small and medium time was ripe. in the central governments and central banks in the case of one mind, in the property market has no market maker property market bubble of the actions will smooth the progress. property investment in savings on the real economy. anti-risk, steady growth in domestic demand on the key tension point to the real estate industry. GDP, fixed asset investment-led growth model has been eliminated, adjust the structure, steady growth in domestic demand, the new model also pull began. (the central structure is the adjustment of property transfer and real estate-related industries. steady growth is the stability of the real economy and domestic demand, consumption growth) reminded countless times in the central high prices, the property market has been down is the trend, profits from the finance and banking to make up. local governments can rely on property tax revenue to supplement. the real estate slump triggered by inflation and promote economic downturn can be a bursting of the bubble economy in China will be a serious negative impact, but this negative impact as long as does not exceed the scope of government control can be said to be 骗贷 to maintain the property market by the rise in China's financial and political & hh * @ ¥ # @ crisis of governance which will inevitably lead storm!!!
4, the RMB's international road:
Since China M2 is the pace of growth can not be stopped, then the government needs to find new markets to absorb excess liquidity of RMB. RMB Note that only a beautiful dream, the central bank's balance sheet can not determine the renminbi become an international currency, the renminbi is not doomed to the more credit with the currency exchange ... but there are two regions are the exception, and that is China Hong Kong and Macao, China. RMB internationalization real purpose is to prove safety Hong Kong and Macao. This is one of the benefits of China) if the RMB and HK dollar in circulation in Hong Kong, while Hong Kong can absorb large amounts of RMB. RMB waste too much money for problem appropriate degree of mitigation .2) to facilitate Hong Kong's central financial control and management. facilitate further control of Hong Kong's ideology .3) Hong Kong's future economic growth will also digest a lot of yuan, the equivalent of Hong Kong to the mainland are working. 4) of Hong Kong, Macao and mainland China will be a coalition of economic and financial, and enhance China's economic strength together to resist financial risks .5) in the central view, the renminbi exchange with the Hong Kong dollar, the Hong Kong dollar became the central bank's assets, the central bank to pay only the actual notes and the RMB has been. This is equivalent to an increase of the effective central bank assets.
course, the occupation of RMB will have some negative effect on Hong Kong and Macao: 1) in conjunction with mainland China, Hong O, together with commitment to rapid devaluation of the RMB internal Nightmare .2) The exchange rate fluctuations .5) part of the international financial worries for the future financial prospects may be from Hong Kong.
our government in order to ensure the yuan's monetary policy, and will inject more RMB to Hong Kong. This will be in the short term boost to our economy to do to play with. on Hong Kong's capital market has a positive effect.
our government started the internationalization of RMB method, although clever, but instead want to accept RMB HK people have a lot of difficulty. After all, Hong Kong is a free financial trade zone, the currency of Hong Kong people the freedom to choose. Renminbi Hong Kong is still difficult to occupy the mainland to come more substantial incentives Caixing. the future Hong Kong will also be a critical life and death battle.
5, the harvest! harvest! harvest! the real risk of Chinese finance:
said China's financial risk Some people will say there is a lot of potential bad debts in banks which, some would say that there were in serious inflation, some people will say there is more than 60 trillion yuan in total savings and 2.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves, which the imbalance Some people will say that there is in the the risk of bad debts in the banking system can be injected through the central bank and finance to resolve ... as long as the control of food prices to domestic inflation can be controlled ... 2.4 trillion in foreign reserve and a fixed exchange rate system, although there was a clear debt and systemic risk, but in the semi-closed financial system, only by 30 years of reform and opening them. This mainly refers to the short RMB, it will have about four shares of the capital strength of the mainland .1) to the central bank and SAFE for the maintenance of stability represented by the capital .2) to foreign investment and Group representing the interests of capital .4) to value is the interest of hedge funds together to crush China's exchange rate system was not attached together they will. have the ability to safeguard stability in the Central Bank exchange rate situation, short of capital they can not help to impact the RMB exchange rate. not a life and death, they will not be Who would win a decisive victory. Therefore, when the expected future of the battle, short of China's power will be strongly encouraged people to swap the country's army of them. as long as the bank appeared in scenes of long queues of ATM and currency exchange, then China's financial dam will collapse instantly. Interest Group formed a strategic alliance will instantly collapse, and the brightest of capital will be crazy to force them fled. At that time the situation will be irreversible ...
Government prohibition of the assembly, you can ban swap, but not against the people to the bank teller ah! people will not believe the central holding stability of capital will not believe the Government's commitment. they believe only trend, only that fear ... it is the central part of the capital can not control, and this is the real source of China's financial risk ...
the face of this unit can not control, can not manage the capital. The only solution is to harvest, harvesting, and then reap the harvest to the people .. no deposit and harvesting to the common people have become negative Weng. Only then, China's financial stability to the real concrete way .... in the property market, the stock market, industrial investment, one by one harvest.
first say the property market:
I think first of the harvest will start from the property. First, the property market's bull market rise after nearly a decade after the 2009 property market has been the main banker to complete a large area of the ship. (I think we should look at the stock market perspective with the property market) Second, the current prices have been far beyond the purchasing power of ordinary people, entirely on speculation 骗贷 to maintain. Third, the current rise in property prices has reached the limit. and now has a floor of universal ( all the people all shares).
the property market is not that what a good opportunity to harvest it? the central bank on loans to purchase, along with strict control and ready to come out of the property tax. In my opinion the best harvest point on the property market has been formed.
harvest method is to freeze the property market 骗贷 behavior. now completely rely on the prices of bank loans to support, but the central bank froze a loan on the property market, the property must go slowly Xiongtu. the property market decline can be stuck with a large number of community information flow is the face of numerous negative purchasers Weng, China's financial risk is significantly reduced!
the property market did not reap the savings of ordinary people can harvest clean. out of concerns about inflation expectations, the community still has a lot of RMB liquidity in the direction of looking for new speculation. fall in property prices will cause people's instability, the central bank also will not allow these financial turbulence, the flow of the market necessities of life will directly lead to serious domestic inflation) ... So the central need to guide these mobility to a new investment direction, the only place is the stock market is the best. (the money lead benefits to the stock market: 1, to help state-owned enterprises Rebate (IPO) 2, the liberation size of the non-.3, tax increases .4, .5 to stimulate domestic demand to absorb the liquidity of the renminbi .6, is conducive to harvesting the assets of savings) < br> I personally strongly against the Chinese property market will also take the bear argument. the property market, stock market, while the harvest, will inevitably lead to economic depression, financial instability and social unrest in the property market .. If the first harvest, but keep the stock market for the better, then in front of a virtual wealth, people will be stable, the capital of the panic will be relatively calm ... is to use warm boiled frog, the foam is to be a crowded one. keep 95% of people ease, 5% of the harvest, and 60 years ago, prices based on whether -----silly gambling years, the Chinese stock market is definitely a solid foundation ...
rose simply said, do not understand what this whole do not worry about not offer individual investors to pick.
course with the limits of the property market has risen as the stock market will have a limit, personally think that the limits of China's stock market is ---- 50% of urban households in China to 70% savings of more than for expectations, policy changes, fluctuations in profit levels may be adjusted ..)
50% if it can be urban households in China, 70% of the savings and lead to the stock market. and then one stuck. then China's financial risks reduced again! But the 4,000 points? 5000 it? 6000 do??? in the overall inflation expectations, there are who can withstand the temptation to do the stock market rally?? no! no!! no!!! them to include you, just me and the people can no longer just the savings deposits (including pensions). No way! Chinese stock market is doomed to reap the place. want to harvest, how will you run??
stock market risk is great China's stock market is the harvest field!!! not be harvested is the ultimate head to lie. My advice is to invest in China's stock market ---- it clear in his position, prudent investment, just leave. only know how to quit China's stock market to avoid the ultimate fate of being harvested!!!
about harvesting industry:
by the property and stock markets are still reaping savings of ordinary people could not finish, and part of the capital on the stock market held firm evasive attitude. (This part is mainly engaged in industrial investment of the private owners) then the next major harvest is to encourage industrial investment, industrial investment and then harvested. harvesting method is to use the heavy taxes and fines to harvest. Alas! Do not think that industrial investment risk, Bankruptcy is the next investment industry. Now fully encourage and support countries in the private sector industrial investment, but more and more difficult in today's business, taxes are increased in the wild! waiting for most of the private owners of the ultimate fate of the bankrupt , representing the bankruptcy of private enterprises to complete the harvest. All taxes and penalties shall be added, a not less ...
If this does not finish the harvest, coupled with the common people that a collapse collapse #% ¥ ¥ how to do? Ha! economic collapse of course @ ¥ # # ¥% collapse. It has long been a .. But inevitably, the economic collapse of the dictatorship of the tree can not shake the tree Atlas . North Korea's economy collapsed long ago, Golden Sun is not still rule it? decades of economic downturn but rather has been, key recovery period as long as rationing, state-owned system, and then strengthen the force, intimidation, slavery, domination can continue . just to keep their financial stability, and then heated to boiling the frog, the frog will not jump out.
If you think the economic collapse benefits no one? that you are wrong, as long as can maintain political stability , trillions of New model)
sword had been made in the string, which is to protect the dictatorship of the Although very, very pessimistic, but the model is absolutely not that simple, nor is the ultimate evolution of the model results. This is just the first round would give the two sides, the model is still in the evolution of these.
(to be continued)
of : stonewong1977 Reply Date :2010-04-15 11:51:03
anticipation, mark
of: to paint this world and return date :2010-04-15 12:04:41
expectations in mark
of: GG shopping Tianya Reply Date :2010-04-15 12:05:02
thank
of sharing: Yi Fei Reply Date :2010-04-15 12:23:42
of look: a dream hanging in the air return date :2010-04-15 12:23:49
freedom to move, and over the top of what
: The Star 2003 Reply Date :2010-04 -15 12:34:01
who harvest? did not reduce the quantity of money, whether the property market or the stock market, rise up, fall down, just completed the transfer of money, some people got money, some lost money , as long as the financial turmoil these currencies remain in circulation, then the people who harvest is to get people money who do, the state? state is a concept only, must be some real organization or individual that they took so much Jin, must come to the big money will be willing to unity, a fire burn? This is not consistent with human greed!, please explain
of landlord: anykey99 Reply Date :2010-04-15 13:11:32
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