Moderator Sun: First of all am very pleased that we have invited our old friend Professor Lv Tingjie, Professor Lui to the users first call a good question.
POSTS: netizens Good morning, very pleased to share with you Sohu.
A , the global telecom equipment magnate shuffle rather than new technology is the demand-driven incentive sun
Moderator: Professor Lui is a very deep penetration of the communications industry experts, the first half of this year, the international global M & A wave surging, the traditional telecom industry integration phase may be at low tide, you think it is based on what kind of background, the outbreak of such a consolidation wave?
POSTS: It should be said from the beginning to the second half of the first half of last year, the big telecom equipment manufacturing Business has been mergers and acquisitions, Alcatel and Lucent, Nokia and Siemens are all carried out integration. so, including the community, including operators, are very concerned about the integration, so I think this integration of several features:
Global Telecom equipment manufacturers have begun to re-shuffle, shuffle the fuse that can be traced back to early last year, the United States a hundred years old (AT & T) to sell Simon Bell this event, we give the teaching of MBA students also said that case, some students said that demand, some people say that the trend of technological development, and others so that the regulatory rules.
but in fact, result in the telecom market reshuffle the most important factor is technological progress. We Recalling the history of AT & T, AT & T has 100 years of history, a century of development, the demand for development, despite the early 80s the United States has successfully integrated the AT & T, but it did not find a better profit growth point. What led him to weaken it? is the emergence of IP phones.
Bell Laboratories invented the cellular phone is the first research institutions, but they made a miscalculation, they think that IP is no market for resale to to the other companies, and then find the Motorola, Motorola in Chicago, the country's first set of test calls.
Second, 3G market opportunities in China continue to subvert the market
technology, this technology also is characterized with a take-all, we recently did a seminar in the conference, I specifically made a point of view, a lot of people are skeptical of China's CDMA, the government also tried some domestic manufacturers to promote the TD-SCDMA technology.
I think an important issue to address, some operators say that experiment is not successful, China Unicom was founded in 1994, citing the GSM, slowly adapting and mature. I think the technology and externalities are related and what is outside sex? tell a popular example, I have cats, dogs and fun, but the neighbors happy, and what paper, affecting the river downstream, these are external issues, communication is performed outside of strong, if the phone, for example, a person with my own phone, to no avail. If my relatives and friends have a cell phone, I tell them to contact, then the world has a mobile phone, I can contact them by. CDMA2000 is the best from the best in terms of advanced technology, the transition is relatively smooth.
but 80% of the market are GMS, resulting in a global market share of CDMA2000 few. There are often run abroad roaming, I would like to bring two mobile phones, multi-mode high cost. So we say that something is not the most advanced technology, the best thing, has a strong destructive. the failure of the U.S. CDMA, gradually shrinking the lessons of the market Tell us why so many countries in Europe will join together to develop new standards, the introduction of a European standard, which is called standard market diffusion capacity, directly affect the diffusion capacity of the WCDMA market.
GSM accounts for 80% of market. I say so that everyone would understand why the roaming user is very convenient, he can go to 80% of the region in the world can use all the advantages of Caesar led to his expanding power, led to his market power. Therefore, integration of markets, a rapid upgrading of communication technologies means that the need for a strong R & D team, in fact, China's TD devoted a lot of investment in the State, but also expect a lot of enterprises to participate, but I want to tell you a data, there A proportion of this is when we survey people abroad tell me, if I put a standard proposed by a billion, mainly because the standard of the initial research and development, but I might put up ten one hundred million patent registration. In addition there are the patent is not enough light The third phase of the R & D to invest 100 billion, corresponding to the technical people have to invest.
we voted in a million received international recognition, but the 10 million we do not, and now we have invested 100 million the products come out, this investment is very large. Now that the international manufacturers, even if you have the patent registered, you have a product, I strongly based on your note this thing a patent. Internationally, each other free of royalties , China has no patent, you buy someone else's. But China now has had the ability, you can participate in the club, but found that the 100 billion later, this is a relationship between the proportion of 1 to 10. then this investment is huge, so difficult to rely on small-scale manufacturers, such small-scale play in the investment and financing capacity, human resource inputs experimental conditions and in other aspects there are problems, so I thought of this as an external standard To join oblige the standard, so do National Cheng Kung University team, is the commercialization of research is very important.
as long as there is a domino effect, as long as there is a business so there will be many businesses like this. So, in the past Our equipment manufacturing, including some of our other fixed products, manufacturing products such as our demonstration vehicle, it does not have such features, it has economies of scale.
to the extent that the reproduction of your loss of sales volume you , but you should pay attention to Microsoft's software to sell more the more you earn, but please note that the protection of the knowledge economy makes more enterprises to develop high-pass, as the development of a patent, what do you think the cost of his Therefore, manufacturers must only led to an enormous scale, increasing the marginal benefit is not an edge, and he hoped that the larger, certainly benefits the better, otherwise he could not support the technological innovation system with intellectual property protection policy or a relationship, so a few words to summarize the first to enter the mainstream.
Third, there are only two against 3G
Moderator Sun: We went down to talk about this matter, we slowly intervention go to the topic, and we also talk about the big global telecom industry has undergone a wave, especially the new changes in market demand, we think a large domestic industry under the framework of telecommunications issues. That some of our less technical content of this , added value is not very high, this how we face the traditional challenges of this new, no matter 3G Ye Hao, including data services, many technology brings business opportunities to this one, including the question you just talk about the controversy for the 3G .
the integration of global telecommunications, how to deal with the Chinese telecommunications industry, the third is what the international community play a role. We are concerned about changes in China's telecom industry, China Mobile earlier this year, certainly holding the Phoenix The new media is an attempt of a transition Ye Hao, Ye Hao extension of the business. They try to recent acquisitions of large overseas operators, you are very concerned about China's telecom industry has been such a future development, how do you think of this variations.
POSTS: telecom industry on a global scale in recent years has indeed undergone significant changes in the performance of China Telecom's restructuring called. Just now you mentioned the first benefits of our operators are not particularly good now, this is right . Now they are effective as growth or growth in previous years, far less strong in previous years, the growth capacity of the old. may be only one China Mobile still maintained a high growth, there are several other shrinking phenomenon. However, our technologically advanced I beg to differ. China Telecom is basically with the international standards, because it was also suggested that China may no longer lagging behind on 3G, because no country to stop technological progress and technological progress, it is a fact.
then you mentioned the China Mobile acquired the shares of Phoenix Satellite Television, which is based upon the two other international initiatives of large companies, but also find a consulting company to do a thorough analysis of the decisions taken. First, South Korean SK Telecom South Korea bought a film studio, bought a bank. followed by Japan's NTT acquisition of Fuji Television, the problem mentioned is very good. it's on the 3G communication industry against two kinds of people.
One is very traditional telecommunications, and he did a lifetime telecommunications, he could not understand why the 3G, that network strong manageability, controllability, the network is intelligent, railway signals are professional, control and management. so this is called networking and Ministry of Railways did not separate the business he must operate the passenger transport network and network operation, his own business, is one such traditional structures. So many people take this business to go in 3G, then you spend billions of dollars, you spend tens of billions of dollars. We telephone network 80%, 90% of our business comes from the voice of business, you may not use the 3G.
there is a pure group of people who engage in the Internet, then he thinks the network is transparent tube, do not control, not management. Users go after that line, and that if the case, your concept of this communication have anything to do with me here, you should go to solve the problem of unlimited access, the only two people opposed to 3G, but I want to say that the first generation of mobile communications with a way to solve the short remote analog voice communication.
Fourth, network, telecommunications industry trend of separation and entertainment, the media industry and commerce of the three Fusion
provide a second-generation digital voice solution, short remote voice communications. But in the same period in the development of two generations of the network, the other big industry is the development of the Internet industry. We talk about the early Internet-based call computer network, or even open to the public network since we know that this network is a person to communicate with the machine, I click on Sohu, Sohu is actually a server to communicate with, click on Taobao Taobao is now a server communication.
so Some people say why the Internet have to return home, back to the office, we should close at hand. We mention this bandwidth is not enough, because after all, is based on the 2-generation goals. so it is not adapted to these communications, after all, so it appears the third generation. If you know the technology, from the application point of view not only solve the short remote communication, but also to resolve human-machine communication. especially a lot of IT industry, including very senior people are not clear. we do in the future The core is the concept of the.
IP technology, Internet technology has created a separate network industry, so that many operators we do not understand, but also do not understand radio and television departments, including the IPTV, can now say that the TV machine set-top boxes can not add the Internet, there is no way that requires you to do. First of all I said was I bought my TV set, you can stop. this kind of thing you want to control him, you can control you?
So I think one point, that they should not be owned by the telecommunications industry and broadcasting industry to the traditional IT industry. way of thinking has not changed, the network broadcasting industry is not the most obvious separation of the industry, now in his possession to your terminal, you see do you see the contents of the Internet industry, the content whose transmission line, which is not in control. Therefore, the entire IT industry, including the traditional IT industry, must be separated network industry.
Not long ago I wrote a very important report, senior leaders are seen. called separation of three networks, IP technology brings is now an industrial chain, not your family-take-all, you have to tolerate this. National Development is very good, government regulation is correct. After the separation will not affect, the network on which the site by the customer to choose a government to increase, due to the separation of network industries, you should strengthen the supervision of channels, the channel now has a strong government control, so There is no worry about the problems brought about necessary. We are always looking for a concept, rather than saying to me to this business model not the same as the traditional model, this is wrong. You talk about the issue particularly well, back to just said that China Mobile to acquire Phoenix, I say a lot of examples, the telecommunications industry is now three major trends of its development trend. telecommunication industry with the integration of the media industry, telecommunications industry is the integration of the entertainment industry, the telecommunications industry with the integration of the three major business trend.
five, content is king on the Internet's still not possible channels for Wang
I can be an example, operators very nervous, technology advances more and more appeared in voice technology, and I live to live not by the voice go on, I think the lack of ideas to date. You talked about 5 years who died by the voice will come. We are now protecting basic telecommunications, but the technology business opportunities is no stopping. I will go to start your multimedia services market, as well as 3G market.
chocolate unpopular in Europe in recent years, and finally consulted hindered the development of telecommunications that is his development. per capita disposable income has not changed, but the mobile Phone consumption significantly increased consumption of the Internet and found that there is no provincial money to eat, wear clothes, there is no provincial money, then he saved money by eating chocolate. And then your voice make money vain.
I last year a number of distribution channels, technology, operators are not doing your content, you are an information transfer services, like transport operation industry. But now the emergence of human-computer communication network to jump out of this voice message. to gradually make the figures internal distribution channels. why, like business, would like the entertainment, would like the media to the trend of convergence, but if, as a distribution channel, for example, there are two operators do work is original, and one is the integration of content, you sell content, your content come from, a lot of content on the shop have a procurement process.
second is the sale of content, voice, no sales function. you cf China Post newspapers and magazines about the issue, itself is a way of third-party service, but have a lot of newspapers, magazines and newspapers every year Who is your postal order. So then the next transition in the mobile industry chain, there have been a big problem, Sohu's Zhang ask how I am. If the mobile portal, which is not to die, then what he says is not without reason, the international community not only theoretical analysis is the case, even the case of Japan (in English) makes the content of operators in Japan service platform, multimedia platform, has CP, operators, they put the SP were getting their own.
but I also want to tell you that the model is not unique, but now more and more exposed the shortcomings of their own, because the content of the information age can be artificially created, so the classification of content management, and is now very particular about precision strikes, carriers for different customers it is very difficult to do. while you do the integration of content, if content, there are some unscrupulous merchants, for instance, put some content harmful to society, then from us looking for you in terms of regulatory policy, the trouble, operators can realize that there is no movement of SP, he may do this a small scale. the future He wanted a strong partner, is outsourcing some specific content integrators, with the operators, he does not want to monopolize this market, but also contrary to the characteristics of the Internet industry's largest business network separation. networks and services should be a separation of chain.
communications infrastructure is a typical, but because of man-machine communication appears it into the car industry. Central Television has a garage debate, experts say that we put aside the last car is polluting, but the West says will drive car the development of many industries, so we as road traffic than the Internet, you see the effect of 3G itself is very small, is a stage, but the stage is different from other stage, he is a high-speed road, will drive the development of society as a whole.
How can you not think Sohu Internet technology, he's created out of thin air out of some industries, so you have to jump out of the traditional vision of telecommunications, bringing the transition we just need to talk about telecommunications, so I think it is more important transformation is the transformation concept.
Moderator sun: that is to bring to the industry, the emergence of a new industry?
POSTS: this phenomenon we prefer to call it induced growth relationship, which can induce the growth of the growth of other industries, there is a relationship called the spread, we called the sex drive. telecommunications industry, we feel that now is not only short remote communication, but also keep this communication. and walking on two legs after the man-machine communication, the existing infrastructure effect, another leading role, the industry has become very unique. is the relationship between economics, the relationship, so we feel that 3G is certainly not the 3G has better technology solutions, as well as 4G. But the emergence of any technology must not an accident, the other way round one of the most core competence is the progress of science and technology have brought the necessary transition operator, in the end Who will make the market reshuffle, in fact, not a science and technology needs, we appeared in Shenzhou, Shenzhou VI .
example, we see that technological progress has brought the decline of some industries, such as Kodak, the World Cup do not see Kodak's market, beat him he is his own invention of the digital camera, digital camera technology is the fact a revolutionary technology, this technology allows more people to become a photography expert, there are some you can not stop technological progress, it creates a lot of industrial opportunities.
POSTS: open competition in the telecommunications market will be at a loss, can not put up this new technology-based business platform. winner takes all, operators only provide more services to his clients before they can lock
operators to develop business at the enterprise level, social level, not to create a good atmosphere.
operators should be aware of their characteristics, and more market-oriented, understanding of customer needs, which in terms of the operators is a difficult question, but also a very critical issue.
chair man the sun: I said not to say that he used the technical content of the network cable platform is less advanced, quite the contrary is an invention of our Chinese nation, but we in the procurement of equipment, including network that, I think we are the world's most advanced operating in fact, I mean to say we are promoting, I personally believe it is a new technology based on new communication products Ye Hao, Ye Hao telecommunications products, including our new media, from voice to data services, including changes in I personally think that this new technology based on the use of new products, this is not enough to create.
I saw your recent article written to appeal to see our piece of telecom value-added services. We see SMS messages hot, what our future 3G there, I think, we can not extend this topic to update some of the topics, such as the Internet culture and traditional culture, just the problem of digging the grave for the latter. This is not our operators block seems a little slow pace.
six, the bigger winner-take-
POSTS: Do you mention this very right, if we open competition in the telecommunications market would be a loss, can not be based on this new put up a platform technology business. I give two examples, two major Chinese operator China Mobile, two characteristics that we are talking about a marginal effect is increasing, so the winner takes all, so operators have more services Therefore, customers can lock him.
but please note that your carrier in China, you will see China Unicom's data services capabilities, is that he's stronger than the 2.75-generation CDMA mobile. but he was in the data business more moves, so the Chinese mobile industry but will lead to price competition into the market to provide richer communications services, such as mobile positioning, mobile platform and if not, then can not do on the 3G, the error is very large. But China Unicom can do it well. there are a lot of location-based, but conversely do very fine Unicom, and I think they want to use the data this is the right direction. Our carriers do innovation in business there are still gaps , but I think from another perspective, in addition to operators, their own problems, we have some policy issues, policy issues, including IPTV, I have just talked about the problem, the Government has not issued a license, he would like to use IPTV, We are now princes pattern, you can not into my lap, I can not into your lap, in fact, the concept of IPTV to bring this issue, we impede the development of new business.
In addition, we have some developed applications in the social atmosphere, we just talked about the enterprise level, social level, not to create a good atmosphere. Let me give a recent example, a completely a social phenomenon, I recently saw a report last year, a major channel of CCTV, two channels , these news channels, including Phoenix several mainstream media, intensive, ten times the so-called SMS Web site reported. This business is a very good hotel if I want, I sent the hotel to the 50120, I put the two restaurants word up, and one I recommend to set Cantonese so and so, why recommend to him? because he gave me to pay. this thing does not do a very good year together. what?
out over a case, there SMS Web site for a look at a guy there, he took Quanjude, Alibaba registered. But Ma said I wanted to come back, dig the guy said 10 million. Ali Baba was defeated, but the young man said give me 30 million . Alibaba second time win, do not give a penny and sentenced young man this thing to the people. I think this is a new issue worth exploring, but we put aside the law, I am not particularly understand the law, from the business operational point of view, if we from the social issues, we can guarantee the development of the SMS Web site, a huge business opportunity in it. Internet, nobody can register here, if you let me up, I do not know why . you want me thousands of dollars in service charges, I would not. If one day I want to come back Quanjude name, you say hundreds of thousands, we have 30 million laws you can not have, and I was sentenced to 10 million 10 million . should still be in favor of this young man, also 10 million. Alibaba 100,000 to buy think I bought what I do not come back, but do not buy I was worried about the SMS Web site after it useful, so will stimulate the use of SMS, the market will be up.
I feel that is a misleading, if the young man sentenced to win, is definitely very hot. appeared in the wave of cybersquatting, can call on the name everyone called, I heard of this situation, we I do not have the name I first registered, for example, three words you send to 50120 POSTS, this very interesting.
did not control the government, businesses do not know how to get, but our understanding of the whole community lacking, so some markets, can not do some good business together, we stressed that mobile commerce, mobile commerce messaging is particularly good engine. I do not know you is not registered, I want to say is that we build a multi-angle is missing, this country in this respect I think we should pay attention at all levels, but operators bear the brunt of a lot of effort in this aspect.
they are weak because they were originally government monopolies, competition was not fully. outsiders often said that you are monopolizing the industry, but operators say you do not know what we are labeled, how much pressure. I a student in a province, as vice president of carrier, he told me, I just point When I was here who is leading in the above statement I, the people who play the game, and now have white hair. You can see how much pressure, because your industry is state-controlled, if only an investment can not be fully competitive If the knot disease in this place, but the other way round, communication is very sensitive to the industry involves a lot of problems. can not make you full competition, so the industry continued the oligarchs are common in any industry, the Government has a strong management of this business.
you want to buy the U.S. telecommunications company, he will come out of Congress to obstruct China's acquisition of a company to the U.S. companies like absolutely such a problem. This requires our business you clear your character, then how do you more market-oriented understanding of customer needs, the terms for our carriers is a difficult question, which is very crucial question.
seven, the next step SP to otherwise die or else alive and well
Zou Mountain: China Mobile, the control of the industry is very clear that what happened recently, he set up a wireless alliance. The struggle between price and the SP, now we know very SP has been more than a dead end, and they do not know how to do? In this case you think China Mobile on this issue we have is what kind of position, while the development of the industrial chain, what kind of role, is to prevent role is conducive to its role in development or transition issues, are now facing a severe contraction voice. I do not know how you see this?
POSTS: now Purge SP's business, I was doing National Natural Science Foundation of business, is data analysis. We believe that operators should be able to survive, but we say that from an economic point of view, so I spent a few hundred dollars a month is actually a very good transfer, then this is the case, SP operators do not make money, this was wrong.
I say this means that I would also like to tell you, I judge these mobile operators, China Mobile to become a police officer in this area. This is reasonable or not is questionable in itself a problem. Please note that not bad but China Mobile, you control him, he just pipe the following SP, we are speaking a little later why he was so strong, depending on the network, China is now doing these I just said is not in Japan's mobile portal, which is the take-all.
so early, when China Mobile, the target gathered in the voice business, and later had a permit SP development. First of all I say or else SP death, otherwise alive and well, this as we figure 0,1. there are many good people that live is a good, if not immediately die live. This is now unstable, this instability industry adversely. This should be a must.
that China Mobile has a desire to profit, that is income, I sell you this magazine, and sell you a song, and I want more and more into proportion. of course, SP, CP does not agree, move on out of a different problem. So to return to a question from a sense, we judge that he would like to pass such a model SP, CP powerful control to an adjustment, if adjustment done to exterminate all of the portal, SP did not exterminate.'ll find a few powerful companies, so I think only through this as a lever or the adjustment means.
so some people China Mobile asked why so much control, if we check, I talked to several experts, there is a strong debate, making clothes to make money without selling clothes, household appliances you want to sell the United States, then you enter into your country the United States but also give you a bill for three months, billions of water every day, he took your money. there Ordos sweater or something, this is the purpose of the Chinese government restrictions, should you hit the retail channel cross, he said you can not find me, but I look 10 million in cash to you, who can do this.
in any business, he has to control the core capital, while the content in the Internet industry, and never may be king, only the channels will be king. so this is the digital distribution channels, the future control of the whole industrial chain, but the results of our analysis is that the case can make up the voice down, do not access the money from the content into . from a business model perspective, operators are laying the groundwork for a future business model, I think there is a long-term objective.
eight fixed monthly package should cancel the monthly fee system is also the second best
a fixed line, mobile phone is not suitable for packages, but the fixed-line telephone for packages. Some people say that even so can not increase revenue, but my home phone is monthly, and do not fight the white does not play, and if so I try to use the fixed phone call, more people to give what you do ring tones, value-added services to increase. China has a problem of regional economic differences between China's urban-rural differences in different regions of the larger, so I think we are faster to implement, this is a self-help program.
Moderator Sunshine: Thank you very much today POSTS wonderful teacher interviews, because of the time, today's interview on here. Thank you!
POSTS: Thank you, we have time to talk later!
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